The Predictive Anthropology Platform provides insights into the future of a specific trend or conversational theme by forecasting its maturity and population growth.
Our forecasting process involves two main steps:
By looking at the pattern of change around a topic, the platform determines whether the meaning around the trend is converging (indicating consensus), staying static, or diverging (suggesting cultural volatility, where consensus breaks down).
In other words, we examine whether the language surrounding the topic shifts from diverse meanings to unified ones, ultimately assessing whether this shift follows a consistent pattern over time.
To accomplish this, our algorithm analyzes the evolution of topics within the topic universe by observing new topics entering the contextual universe and existing topics leaving it.
The AI anthropologist’s objective is to ascertain whether, over time, the topics entering the universe contribute to a reduction in the overall diversity of the culture. If this ongoing consolidation of meaning is consistent, it signals that the topic or trend is maturing.
However, if a consistent reduction is not observed, it implies there is likely volatility within the context. In such cases, we do not run a prediction.
The AI anthropologist conducts its analysis by leveraging a 1-year block of historical contextual data on a topic or trend at a time. This involves running thousands of regressions on the movement of thousands of topics.
Through this comprehensive approach, we can track the trajectory of topics and assess whether they are consistently converging over time. Such convergence signifies a reduction in diversity and a reliable evolution of the trend.
Our growth predictions provide anticipated growth rates and timelines, with timelines specified as occurring within 1-5+ years.
Two key factors contribute to the variations in time frames between different cultures.
A growth rate anticipated to occur within the next 2-3 years.
Firstly, our predictions result from regression analysis, wherein we simulate multiple future development scenarios for the culture, across different time frames.
We then present the scenario that returned the highest predicted accuracy.
It’s worth noting that we strive for a minimum accuracy rate of 80.4% on our predictions!
Secondly, the pace of cultural change influences the expected time frame for growth.
In mathematical terms, a higher velocity of change corresponds to a more immediate predicted time frame.
This culture anticipates the shortest time frame we report: 1-2 years. This is due to both of the above factors: a high velocity of change and a higher level of accuracy.
And a slower velocity of change leads to a more gradual predicted time frame.
This culture anticipates a slower rate of change at 4-5 years,. This is again due to both of the above factors: a lower velocity of change and the 4-5 year simulation returning the highest level of accuracy.
In cultural terms, a high velocity of change indicates rapid solidification of ideas within the culture, while a low velocity of change suggests a slower spread of these ideas and meanings.
Each prediction comes with a few important metrics.